Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (and Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element of US politics β but this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time because each side β as well as the nation's leader β perceive advantages in digging in.
Here are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump β not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back some control from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the budget standoff to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself stated recently that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns typically involved late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees β over 800,000 workers β to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure β with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate should administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be extended in duration.